With near-unparalleled anticipation and keen interest, the 2010-11 NBA season begins Tuesday. A doozy of a matchup — Big 3 squared — gets it going, too: LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and the Miami Heat against Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and the Boston Celtics (TNT, 7:30 p.m. ET). An Eastern Conference final preview?
Of course, the Orlando Magic will have a say in the matter, too.
Other eye-catching story lines this season:
•Oklahoma City Thunder forward Kevin Durant's emergence as a legitimate MVP candidate.
•Forward Carlos Boozer joining guard Derrick Rose and the Chicago Bulls.
•Forward Blake Griffin's attempt to resuscitate the Los Angeles Clippers.
•New York Knicks forward Amar'e Stoudemire's presence in the Big Apple.
•And, oh yeah, that Los Angeles Lakers' run at a three-peat.
Seems fantastic.
But all that glitters is not gold.
Stalemated labor negotiations and a potential lockout when the collective bargaining agreement expires after the season could mute the positive vibe and spoil any momentum this season creates.
Commissioner David Stern's just-announced wish to reduce annual player salary costs by at least $750 million has triggered fears of the NBA's first labor stoppage since the 1998-99 season.
Players union executive director Billy Hunter says the league's insistence on a rollback of salaries, a hard salary cap and non-guaranteed contracts "will inevitably result in a lockout and the cancellation of part or all of the 2011-2012 season."
Strong words, but neither side says the negotiating rhetoric will sully what happens on the court. The grousing that plays out off the court, however, won't end anytime soon.
In anticipating the highs and lows of the coming months, here is our take on the 10 questions this season will answer:
1. Will star-studded Heat win it all?
They certainly have the talent with the NBA's best trio in guard Wade and forwards James and Bosh and complementary players such as guard-forward Mike Miller, forwards Udonis Haslem and James Jones and guards Carlos Arroyo and Mario Chalmers.
But it's not that simple. Chemistry, on and off the court, plays a role, and it does not happen overnight.
Continuity — that's the word Heat coach Erik Spoelstra likes to use — hardly has started on the court with Wade missing most of the preseason with a strained right hamstring and swingman Miller out until at least January from a freak thumb injury.
It is not unusual for a team to find out what it takes to win a championship the hard way — going deep into the playoffs and losing and then coming back the following season to win the title.
That might be the Heat's path, and there is nothing wrong with that. But that's not what James, Wade and Bosh expect, nor their fans. Anything less than a title will draw catcalls.
2. Will Phil Jackson get a fourth three-peat and the Lakers a franchise-record third?
As long as five-time champion Kobe Bryant stays healthy, don't bet against them, because this is a deeper team than last season's. The Lakers bring back the same starters with Derek Fisher, Bryant, Ron Artest, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum (whose recovery from knee surgery will keep him out a while).
Their most glaring weakness last season was their bench, but the additions of point guard Steve Blake, forward Matt Barnes and shot-blocking center Theo Ratliff have bolstered that area significantly. Bryant will be going for his sixth title, which would tie him with Michael Jordan. Motivation enough.
3. Is Oklahoma City a legitimate threat to the Lakers?
Definitely. The Thunder probably are a year away, but depending on how the season breaks, Oklahoma City is good enough to make it happen now. The Thunder not only have youth with scoring champ Durant and point guard Russell Westbrook but also depth and a desire for playing lockdown defense.
To go deep in the postseason, a coach must be able to reach into his reserves to find sparks, such as what James Harden did for the team last season to pull out close games. The Thunder took the Lakers to six games in the playoffs, their first postseason appearance since the franchise moved to Oklahoma City from Seattle (where they were called the SuperSonics).
Now Durant and Westbrook are more seasoned from their experience winning gold for the USA at the world championship. And the Thunder added more shooters with Daequan Cook and Morris Peterson. Starting 6-7 swingman Thabo Sefolosha is a rare commodity who can defend the most challenging skill position on the floor without rotating help from the low post.
4. Which different West teams will make the postseason?
The Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies and Houston Rockets. Maybe even the Sacramento Kings.
The Rockets won 40 games without center Yao Ming; now that he's back, they can go at least 10 deep. Adding Brad Miller as a free agent behind Yao solidifies that position, and their guard play is especially solid after acquiring Courtney Lee. Don't be surprised if they win the Southwest Division for the first time since it was formed in 2004, but with power forward Luis Scola leading the way instead of Yao.
The Grizzlies fizzled late last season, but their success this time hinges on better production from the point guard position and more production from the bench. The Clippers and Kings are bolstered by their recent draft picks at the same time the Utah Jazz (53 wins) and Phoenix Suns (54) lost All-Stars and could take significant dips.
The Denver Nuggets (53 wins), however, could fall the most, with injuries to interior players and the much-discussed possibility All-Star Carmelo Anthony will be traded by the deadline in February.
5. What happens with 'Melo?
The short answer: He will be traded this season. The Knicks and New Jersey Nets seem mighty interested.
Here's the long answer: The Nuggets, Anthony and a willing trade partner are in a conundrum. The Nuggets want something valuable in return. Anthony wants a say in where he goes.
The Knicks would be one step closer to a super team and a threat to join the upper half of the East. The Nets would be better, too, and primed for the future. Both, of course, want assurances Anthony will sign an extension and be with the team beyond this season.
So far, no proposed deal has appeased everyone. A deal looked close just before training camp, and one is still possible soon. But the Nuggets are in no hurry.
The possibility exists Anthony remains with the Nuggets all season and then becomes a free agent, allowing him to sign where he wants.
6. Is Tim Duncan's era with the San Antonio Spurs about done?
Probably. This is the last hurrah for the most dominant small-market franchise — winners of four championships between 1999 and 2007 — in the modern era. Fundamentally sound players such as Duncan, 34, can play at a higher level much longer than those who rely on physical gifts.
Expect him to have another strong season, especially if 25-year-old rookie Thiago Splitter, a 6-11 forward from Brazil, gives the Spurs another low-post presence with DeJuan Blair.
The Spurs showed flashes of that old magic by upsetting the Dallas Mavericks in the first round last season but looked dated while being swept for the first time in franchise history, by the Suns in the conference semifinals. They lacked outside shooting, and this team of 30-somethings can't run.
They need to get younger and faster to compete in the West. By the time they get those pieces in place to make another serious run, Duncan's time will be up.
7. Aren't the Celtics and Magic being ignored?
From a national perspective, the Heat have attracted the most attention. But attention does not win games, and Miami knows it will have to beat at least Orlando or Boston, if not both, in the playoffs to reach the Finals.
The Celtics and Magic made important offseason decisions — Boston with personnel and Orlando with X's and O's.
Adding guard Delonte West and the O'Neal big men (Shaquille and Jermaine) were shrewd moves for Boston. The Celtics look deeper and better than they were last season, especially with Garnett fully recovered from spring 2009 knee surgery and point guard Rajon Rondo that much better.
Magic coach Stan Van Gundy isn't abandoning his pick-and-roll offense, just adding more post plays for center Dwight Howard. Howard's more serious attitude gives Orlando sharper focus.
Both teams are talented and versatile. If the Heat slip, both will be right there.
8. Who will be MVP?
Durant is the hot pick. Coming off a season in which he was the youngest scoring leader in NBA history (then 21) and a summer in which he led Team USA to a gold medal in the world championships, Durant was picked by league general managers to win the award.
The Magic's Van Gundy will again encourage voters to consider his center, Howard.
But is there a really better player than James? He is only 25, a two-time MVP with room to grow. He's also on a team where other areas of his game might improve because he doesn't need to score as much as he did with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
9. Is the new rule on technical fouls a disaster in the making?
Time will tell, although some think the NBA might have gone a step too far.
The NBA has instructed referees to reduce the complaining from players about calls and no-calls by issuing technical fouls. Behavior that previously did not generate technicals will now — such as overt disagreeable gestures, even if it is not directed at a referee.
Some critics argue that cutting back on whining is good. Others say limiting players' emotion and passion is not.
Stern is convinced players will adapt, and he might be right — for the most part. Minor controversies will erupt, Stern argues, but the guidelines will become second nature to the players and referees and a non-topic after a while.
Unless a superstar gets tossed or it affects an important game, critics argue.
10. Will there be a work stoppage? If so, who will come out the winner?
It's more than likely there will be one. The rhetoric late last week from both sides was not a good sign and washed out the good feelings that had come out of previous meetings. But then again, it's not like Stern and Hunter haven't hammered out a deal previously.
Owners are talking of $400 million in losses last season alone, and they point to escalating expenses that dwarf growing revenue.
Stern wants a reduction of $750 million-$800 million in annual salaries — players wouldn't be the first employees to take a pay cut in this economy. Owners will also fight for shorter contracts, a hard salary cap with no exceptions and non-guaranteed deals.
The players have already rejected those ideas. They note that, if owners are in such financial trouble, why are complementary players such as Amir Johnson and Drew Gooden being paid in excess of $30 million in free agency?
Negotiations are expected to get uglier before a deal is reached.
Players prospered in the last collective bargaining agreement. It is unlikely they will prosper in this one, especially if it gets to where games are canceled and a portion of the 2011-12 season is lost.
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